The first Survey USA poll out of Ohio show Hillary leading Obama by 17%. Clinton leads among women by a wide margin by 29 points  and tied Obama among men. It's still early to know how the race is going to go but right now it seems Hillary has the clear advantage.

Ps. With Hillary playing the Giuliani strategy, we'll see if she can hold on to her firewall.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e 76b808

There is a great analysis over at Dailykos that pretty much nails it on how Obama outplay Clinton to  make it virtually impossible for her to win the nomination. While early on during the campaign, the obnoxious Mark Penn was puffing about Hillary's glowing poll numbers, the meticulous David Axerold was putting an impressive organization in Iowa for Obama. January 3rd was the first blow to the Clinton Campaign and put in display how incompetent her chief strategist was. Here's an excerpt of the analysis from dloewe:

But there are only 1,277 pledged delegates remaining up for grabs. For Obama to get to the 2,025 threshold without using super delegates, he would have to win 1,013 out of 1,277, or 79% of the remaining delegates. For Hillary to do that, she would have to win 1,076 out of 1,277 or 85% of the remaining delegates. That is virtually (make that actually) impossible.

What does that mean? It means that the super delegates get to decide the race. The problem with that, of course, is how shockingly undemocratic it is - party insiders choosing the nominee when we were led to believe that primaries would do that. But what's worse is that we could have a situation where Obama wins a majority of the pledged delegates and the super delegates decide to hand the nomination to Hillary anyway. This would cause an all out civil war in the party, and would make Hillary one of the weakest nominees in modern Democratic politics, virtually assuring a President John McCain.

Here's the catch: The party understands this, as do the super delegates. Though the above scenario is possible, it's exceptionally unlikely. Elaine Kamarck, a senior DNC official and super delegate herself, told me Thursday that it would never happen. "Super delegates are cowards - we would never do that." This, by the way, from a woman who has endorsed Hillary Clinton. Chuck Todd, political director for NBC News said on Saturday that super delegates are likely to follow the pledged delegate winner, especially if that winner is also ahead of McCain in the polls. And because more than half of the super delegates have yet to pledge, it's likely that this would be more than enough for Obama to maintain his lead, even when super delegates are added to the mix.

This is good news for the Obama crowd!! let's keep working to make it happen. The Clintons won't give their power away so we have to snatch it away from them.

To read the full analysis http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/12/ 94442/2551/708/454910

ahaaa,to see how incompetent Mark Penn is, read his latest trash here http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/02/why_hillary_not_obama_is_the_d .html

The  stark generational difference in these two videos tell us a great deal of what a nice election this 2008 general election is shaping up to be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gwqEneBK Us

The guy is really the past

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-m YY

Obama is young and shining.This is going to be a great year!

On the eve of the Maryland primary, Obama is leading Hillary by a margin of 23%. This is terrible news for Hillary as she been losing very badly lately. Survey USA also find a similar story in Virginia where Obama is leading by 22%.

Key Findings:

Obama is beating Hillary by a whopping 41% among men

Obama is also winning among women by  8%

Clinton and Obama are essentially tied among White voters 39-44% Clinton

Obama leads among all age group excerpt with voters 65+ where he tied Hillary.

Link for crosstabs: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=1db1f4a4-0829-40a3-8b0e-5b1875 4118b5
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=66104dbf-be73-44e9-ab28-15a3bf d72a8f

Patti Solis Doyle, Hillary Campaign manager, is stepping down after a disappointing tenure.She will remain a campaign senior advisor but we all know what that means.

During her tenure, she keeps an unusually low profile for a campaign manager. Maggie Williams a long time Clinton friend and adviser will take over.

Good luck to Patti, I hope she's not the only scapegoat. Mark Penn deserves more blame for the collapse of the campaign.

Ps. I predicted a shake up yesterday  at Washingtonpost's blog inside the Clinton campaign here http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/20 08/02/prediction_time_special_saturd.htm l?nav=rss_blog  

All early indication has it that Obama is running up the score against Clinton in Nebraska.

Preliminary results as recounted by Elvis meets Nixon over at dailycos.com has http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/1 24350/3207/224/453352has Obama winning precincts by more than 3 to 1. Here's how Elvis put it:

I am in District 12 in Omaha, meeting at Ralston Middle school. Officials reported we had over 900 people including 200 who switched from Independent or Republican affiliation.The demographics were stark. On the HRC side mostly white women over 40, one black woman, some men. On the BHO side it was as diverse as Omaha could be, some high school kids who will be voting age, men, women, black, asian, all ages. We estimated early it was 2 to 1.
   The final tally means 3 delagates for HRC and 7 for Obama for the state convention.
  Other districts:6, 31, and 39 all report same or better for Obama with same demographics. there are a total of 49 legislative districts in Nebraska

Though there's not much we can make of these unrepresentative sample out of Nebraska but it's probably a harbinger of what to come later tonight when we get the results. Hillary supporters, consider yourself warned!!!

Live blogging out Omaha,Nebraska also has bad news for Hillary. Follow it here  http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=28 35&u_sid=10254218

In this Saturday morning, let's have some fun with Hillary and Obama. You know who's PC...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1U9J9JPx rA

It seems the coming days will be promising for Obama. New numbers from Survey USA show Obama leading Hillary by a margin of 19% Points.

Key Finding:

Obama leads by 6% among female voters who make up 58% of the sample

Obama leads by a whopping 36% among male

Obama and Clinton are tied among white voters. 40-42 Clinton

Obama leads 71-18% among black who make up 39% of the sample.

Clinton leads obama 48-40 among Hispanics who make up just 3% of the sample. That's surprising!!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=c0543f1a-189f-4fb7-9345-09977f c98ed8

Ps.Survey USA was the most accurate pollster for Super Tuesday. report card here http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 02/06/2008-pollster-report-card-through- super-tuesday-active-pollsters-only/
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